This paper analyses the production downturn that started in Belarus in 2015. The paper shows that the economic recession is the result not only of cyclical fluctuations, but also the structural compression. Moreover, the structural component of the recession in 2016 began to dominate. The decline was the natural continuation of the long-term trend of growth decline due to falling productivity. At the same time endogenous mechanisms of "repression of efficient industries" appeared to be the key cause of productivity decline. External shocks in the 2014-2015 only intensified the downward trend in productivity, and speeded up and deepened the inevitable structural recession.
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