The paper documents facts about the Belarusian business cycle based on aggregate and industry data and places it into an international context.
Firstly, the aggregate fluctuations in Belarus are mostly driven by the tax wedge, resembling a time-varying investment tax. Secondly, the fluctuation in relative prices in an industry is typically more important than volume fluctuation. Furthermore, the paper argues, the impact of price fluctuations is partially offset by volume fluctuation. Thirdly, the aggregate business cycle is smoother than the industry-specific one. In particular, the agriculture, construction and finance industries experience a very sharp drop in a recession.
|Download 8||477.87 KB|